With nearly a quarter of conference play in the dust, Siena and Northern Iowa each stand 4-0 in their respective conferences, the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference and the Missouri Valley Conference.
Tomorrow, they will each have an opportunity to prove they are indeed the No. 1 in their leagues.
On the other hand, Niagara and Illinois State can upset the favorites and tighten the standings.
Niagara (10-6, 3-1 MAAC) at Siena (11-4, 4-0 MAAC) 1 PM
Siena's OOC performance lacked the "big" win. The Saints could not take advantage of contests at Temple, currently ranked No. 21 in the AP Poll, and Georgia Tech, No. 23 at the time.
However, the Saints are gelling, riding a five game winning streak into tomorrow's match. With the exception of an unexpected close game against Mount Saint Mary's, the Saints have steamrolled their competition during the streak, beating Rider, Saint Joe's, Saint Peter's, and Loyola-MD all by double-digits.
The Saints will encounter an inconsistent Niagara squad, which tends to struggle in close games. The Purple Eagles have fallen in five of their six losses by six or less points.
Siena boasts a 45.8 percent field goal percentage while Niagara's defense only allows its foes to convert 41.7 percent of their shots. Struggling from beyond the arc, Siena shouldn't perform better than their usual 29.3 percent from three against Niagara, who defends the perimeter well.
Siena allows opponents to hit 43.5 percent of their shots, so Niagara's guards should receive a decent amount of open looks.
Disregarding the percentages, though, there are two factors that should lead to a Siena victory: Niagara's lack of an inside presence and Siena's home-court advantage.
Entering the season, the Purple Eagles knew they would struggle against bigger competition. They have been out-rebounded by an average of 5.5 boards per game, worst in the MAAC.
With Ryan Rossiter and Alex Franklin in the front-court, the Saints are the MAAC's best rebounding team and out-rebound opponents by an average of 3.1 boards per game.
The Saints dominate at the Times Union Center, where they have won 28 straight contests dating back to February 2008. Niagara has not won on Siena's home floor since Fran McCaffery began roaming the sidelines.
Siena 79, Niagara 68
Northern Iowa (13-1, 4-0 MVC) at Illinois State (12-3, 3-1 MVC) 4 PM on ESPN2
Northern Iowa is the country's hottest mid-major. The Panthers have beaten Boston College, Iowa State, Iowa, Siena, Creighton, and Missouri State in their current 12 game winning streak.
On the other side is a team that has not answered the door when good competition rings the bell. Illinois State's best win is in conference against a talented Wichita State team, but the Redbirds have fallen to Niagara, Ohio, and Missouri State.
The resumes alone provide a convincing argument for the Panthers, but Illinois State is certainly capable of pulling off the upset.
Averaging 74.2 points per game, the Redbirds flaunt the Valley's highest scoring offense. They will be met by the conference's lowest scoring defense—the Panthers' opponents are averaging 57 points per game.
However, the Panthers' points allowed per game are somewhat deceiving. UNI does not play suffocating defense. Instead, they simply keep a moderate pace as opposed to Illinois State's up-tempo style.
Illinois State will get some good looks against Northern Iowa's defense. The Redbirds only shoot 32.9 percent from deep, but the Panthers are rather weak on the perimeter. If Illinois State gets hot from outside, No. 1 could find itself in trouble.
Osiris Eldridge's performance could possibly decide the outcome. If the Panthers shut down the Valley's top scorer, a win could come relatively easily. However, Eldridge might be able to dominate, in which case Illinois State will probably emerge victorious.
Statistics tend to brainwash the mind. Although Illinois State has the stats on its side, Northern Iowa has succeeded against reputable competition.
Northern Iowa 71, Illinois State 68
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